2034년에 공적연금 재정고갈 예상

올해 미국도 1982년이후 처음으로 공적사회보장연금(Social Security)과 공적의료(Medicare)에서 재정적자가 예상된다고 6월5일 발표했습니다.

인구노령화로 사회보장 서비스를 받는 사람이 6,150만명으로 증가하고 공적의료 대상자도 5,840만명이 되어 재정 비용은 커져가는데, 경제성장 둔화와 고용저조로 세수가 감소해서 재원이 줄었으니 당연한 거겠지요.

의회에서 예산관련 특단의 조치를 취하지 않으면 공적사회보장은 2034년에 공적의료는 2026년에 고갈이 될 것이고 하네요.

미국만의 문제도 아니지만 예상보다 3년이나 빨라서 이 친구들 많이 당혹해하네요.

 

출처 : https://www.wsj.com/articles/social-security-expected-to-dip-into-its-reserves-this-year-1528223245

Social Security Expected to Dip Into Its Reserves This Year

Aging population is boosting the costs of Social Security and Medicare as growth projections ease

 

 

Social Security program’s cost will exceed its income this year. Photo: mario anzuoni/Reuters

By David Harrison

 

This is three years sooner than expected a year ago, partly due to lower economic growth projections, according to the latest annual report the trustees of Social Security and Medicare released Tuesday. The program’s income comes from tax revenue and interest from its trust fund.

The trust fund will be depleted in 2034 and Social Security will no longer be able to pay its full scheduled benefits unless Congress takes action to shore up the program’s finances. Without any changes, recipients then would receive only about three-quarters of their scheduled benefits from incoming tax revenues. 

The report also said that Medicare’s hospital insurance fund would be depleted in 2026, three years earlier than anticipated in last year’s report. Absent changes, the program then would be able to handle 91% of costs. The nation’s aging population is boosting the costs of Social Security and Medicare, while revenue gains lag due to slower growth in the economy and the labor force.

About 61.5 million people receive retirement or disability benefits from Social Security and 58.4 million receive Medicare.

The Social Security program works by using payroll taxes paid by workers and employers to pay for retirees’ benefits. What is left over is invested in the trust fund. Interest earned is reinvested in the fund.

Over time, the trust fund has grown to nearly $3 trillion. But long-running demographic trends threaten its finances. Last year, there were 2.8 workers for every Social Security recipient, down from 3.3 in 2007.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement the Trump administration’s efforts to cut taxes, reduce regulatory burdens and overhaul trade agreements would boost economic growth and generate new money for the country’s two largest entitlement programs.

Social Security consists of two programs, one for retirees and one for people who claim disability benefits.

The retirement program’s reserves are projected to be depleted in 2034, a year sooner than projected in last year’s report.

The disability fund is expected to run out in 2032, as opposed to 2028 as forecast in last year’s report. The program’s financial health has improved in recent years as the growth in disability applications has fallen, the report said.

The tax cuts signed into law last year have slightly lowered Medicare and Social Security’s projected revenue over the next few years. Lower income-tax rates reduced projected revenue from the taxation of Social Security benefits. That means less money flowing into both programs because those revenues are transferred to the trust funds.

President Donald Trump’s decision to end a program offering young undocumented immigrants reprieve from deportation while allowing them to work also reduced anticipated tax revenue into the Social Security program, the report said.

Congress has debated ways of bolstering the programs’ finances, but hasn’t agreed on what to do.