저소득층에서 태어난 흙수저가 그 사회의 평균적인 소득계층에 편입되려면 시간이 얼마나 걸릴까요?

OECD국가 평균으로 4.5세대가 지나야한답니다.

복지제도가 우수한 덴마크도 자식세대에나 되어야 가능하고, 축국강국 브라질은 9세대가 지나야 한다네요. 우리나라는 평균에 가깝습니다. 5세대... 세대당 30년 잡으면 150년입니다.

재미있는 것은 독일이 6세대로 우리나라보다 길다는 것입니다. 한세대 안에서 계층상승은 개인의 노력이 사회내에서 인정받는 정도에 따라 속도가 결정될테니 독일 같은 서구가 빠를텐데,
세대간 신분상승은 결국 국가가 조세제도를 통해 어떻게 개입하느냐에 따라 달라지는것 같습니다. 상속세를 얼마나 부과하고 저소득층에 어느 정도 노령연금같은 이전소득을 뿌리고 연금적립을 위해 얼마나 소득공제와 매칭부담금을 지원하고...소득 계층간 계단의 높이도 중요하지만 서구의 계단은 너무 끈적거려서(sticky floors) 한칸 오르기가 쉽지 않나봅니다.

저출산이 문제겠지만, 일단 태어난 아이들은 옛날에 비해 무탈하게 잘 살고 있습니다.

OECD자료에 의하면 1960년과 비교해서 전반적으로 소득과 무관하게 유아가 만 5세이전에 사망할 확률(뮈 아동 사망률이라고 불러도 좋을 듯)이 좋아졌는데, 특희 저소득 아동의 사망률이 급감한 것이 한눈에 들어옵니다.

출처: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality-by-income-level-of-country

child-mortality-by-income-level-of-country.svg

캐나다 밀레프스키 연금학 교수님이 지난달말 동경에서 열렸던 OECD회의 참가 후기를 남기셨습니다.

이 회의에서 교수님은 퇴직연금 등을 일시금이 아닌 연금으로 지급받는 것(소위 annuity puzzle 문제)이 얼마나 중요한지 강조하시고 연금지급을 확대하기 위한 아이디어(톤틴연금) 등을 발제하셨다고 참가자들로부터 들었습니다.

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출처 : https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/world-decumulation-moshe-arye-milevsky

A World of Decumulation

I recently spent a week in Tokyo, where among other engagements I was attending and speaking at an OECD-sponsored conference on insurance in Asia. Although the theme of the conference was quite broad and included discussions of cyber-security as well as climate-change and insurance, a full day was devoted to pensions and decumulation (a.k.a. drawdown strategies.)

The slides and presentations are here

The OECD which is based in Paris has been working on developing guidelines or best practices for global retirement income systems, which they are hoping will be adopted by the 35-member countries as well as outsiders who would like to join the exclusive OECD club. Needless to say, the OECD is nudging anyone who will listen away from unfunded Defined Benefit (DB) systems towards funded (DC-type) plans. This is not uncontroversial, mind you.

In addition to the formal conference keynotes and presentations -- very formal, it’s Japan after all – over the long breaks I had the opportunity to chat with government officials from Myanmar, Estonia, Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia, Singapore and Dubai (and other places I would never dare visit.) Think of it as the United Nations of insurance and pension regulators, all in a safe conference room.

Over the course of two days I learned many new financial factoids which I'm not quite sure where to store in memory – for example, insurance sales in the Greater Mekong Sub-region are increasing by over 100% per year – and I collected many business cards, which by the way is still done in that part of the world. I also learned how to bow, which I really like.

On a more relevant note – listening to representatives from both industry and government – I was struck by the following: 

1.) Retirement income is truly a global concern and there is a growing awareness that financial literacy and education must go hand-in-hand with any product solutions. A perfect system is useless if consumers don’t understand it and appreciate it. People vote for things they understand.

2.) Many countries and regulators are still looking to the U.S. financial services sector and their companies for solutions, mainly because of their experience and scale. The big U.S. company names you would recognize were all there.

3.) The unique and peculiar culture of different countries often makes it impossible to implement solutions that would seem quite logical to a (western trained) financial economist. When I would ask: “Why did you design that particular feature in that odd way?” the response was: “Otherwise, it would never sell.”

4.) Life annuities are very popular and used as the bedrock of retirement income in some countries (Singapore, and to a certain extent India) but are either non-existent (e.g. Cambodia, etc.) or extremely unpopular in others. The bequest motive is a very powerful factor in these countries. I pledge to add them to my simple life-cycle utility functions going forward!

Finally, for those of you interested in innovative retirement income products, in April of 2016 the Japanese insurance company Nippon Life launched a tontine-type annuity. Yes. Moreover, they actually use the word tontine front-and-center in the product description. They are very proud of the 17th century heritage of the idea, with no marketing fears or image concerns. The word tontine is (by now) known to a much larger segment of the population. But then again, the temple Manji symbol is also growing in popularity. Yikes!

2017년 OECD국가의 근로자들은 평균적으로 자기 총 급여의 거의 1/4을 세금으로 내고 있습니다.

OECD가 개인소득세와 여타 사회보장 보험료 등에서 이전소득을 제외한 "순개인평균소득세율(net personal average tax rate)"를 4월24일에 발표했는데, 평균값이 25.5%라고 하네요.

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젊은이들이 언제 은퇴할거냐구요?

OECD가 2016년에 20세인 근로자를 대상으로 조사했는데 우리나라뿐만 아니라 일본, 독일, 캐나다, 스웨덴 모두 65세랍니다